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Odds are for Losers ... Unless ...


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"Glorious" Blade Impetus(N), + Killer Instinct, + Vermin Free = +2.
Nine Blade Techniques as Overkill = +2
Quest Pip: +1

Total: +5

Rolling Twice at Level 6.

Calculated Target for a single Dispatch = 12+
(With the +5 on the roll, the number is at the 7 row .. second column.)

Chance of Success (Dispatching 1): 77% on a Single Attempt - 95% on Two Attempts.

It is good to be the Ralf.

Defensive Modifier
It should be noted with Defensive Modifier or just Penalty for the Foe / Quest, these numbers would drop. The Saurians were a foe we should have been able to handle reasonably well (and so we did).

Use the Boat
If instead one were to choose the 20 Boat Techniques, that would be an overkill of +4. Add Killer Instinct and Blade Impetus, +2. Add the Quest Pip +1. (Swagger and Blade Techniques may be used to add?)

Result +7 to the roll. The 12 Target goes even lower to 5 ... BUT ... if you roll 5 or less twice, you lose the boat technique (~1% chance).

Level 3 Ralf with say 3 Techniques
+1 for Techniques. +1 for Blade, Mount, Boat, and no quest pip.

Chance of Success: Single Roll 10+ -- 44%


(A quick few clicks in Excel.)

Simple Odds Chart

Notes on Chart: No benefit in double successes so the odds are simply the 100% minus the chance of missing both rolls. Rusty mileage will vary (Chart Provided below).

Rusty Odds Chart


Yours,

   Iron Odds



Message Replies:
About fifty-fifty ot slay the god? -- red (posted: 3/2/2019) 
Need to Farm for Swaggering Too? -- Iron Odds (posted: 2/3/2019) 
Rusty is the new Squires -- Mike, Son of Mike (posted: 2/4/2019) 
There is a next Button at the Bottom of the Page? -- Iron Next (posted: 2/4/2019) 
Well I obviously figured out the retype the number thing -- Mike Miller (posted: 2/5/2019) 
 
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