Stats on the Fly is tough ....

Message:



The chance of rolling a total of 12+ with 2d8 at least twice in 5 attempts is ~ 33.43%.

The chance of rolling a total of 14+ with 2d8 at least twice in 5 attempts is ~ 7.25%.

The chance of rolling a total of 14+ with 2d8 at least three times in five attempts is ~ 0.712% (or about 1 in 140).


With IronPax and Roll 20, it's 50/50.

(We got the 7.25% result.)




=====TASK RESOLUTION ... PONDERINGS ===============================

As I get old and tired, I would say it makes sense to simply have one value by level for Task Resolution and apply a modifier.

Some would even say just roll the dice and count the rolls of say 7+

The chance of rolling 7+ with 2d8 / 3d8 attempts is 44% / 58%.

You could leave it at that and let the higher levels use make rolls.

Or, at level 4+, gain 1 extra die and at level 7+, gain 2 extra dice.

If something was particularly tough, deduct one die.

=== Some Probabilities: ====
1d8: 25% Success
2d8: 44% Success
3d8: 58% Success
4d8: 68% Success
5d8: 76% Success

It preserves the 2 die / 3 die with skill Q&D rulez.
Trivial to memorize. 7+ to pass the test.

Just a thought.


Yours,